HomeSportsDraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks...

DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Richmond: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Cook Out 400 | FantasyLabs

The main NASCAR DFS talking point for Sunday’s Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway undoubtedly has to be about practice times.

Cup Series drivers practiced in one of two groups. Group A, which went out first, hit the track in significantly more favorable track conditions. The top 13 drivers from Group A posted a faster single lap than the fastest driver from Group B.

When you see that, you know individual and even average lap times are misleading. Additionally, even long-run speed can be misleading at a super-high tire wear track like Richmond, where a driver can show up near the bottom if he made his longer run on old tires.

Such is the case for Sunday’s race, giving us plenty of opportunity to take advantage of people not adjusting to practice conditions.

Richmond is a highly predictable track with very few cautions, so in addition to practice adjustments, we’ll also need to make our pivots in tournaments a bit more minor compared to highly random tracks. Thus, it’s going to be a pretty chalky week for my picks, but that’s just how Richmond goes.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday’s Cook Out 400 at Richmond.

Richmond DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks

Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,000): It’s hard to go against the driver who has absolutely dominated Richmond in recent years, as well as earlier this year in the first race at the three-quarter mile track.

Truex also posted extremely solid practice times in Group B, which was the slower of the two groups. His FLAGS was second best in the group, which was arguably the stronger group despite having the slower speeds thanks to track conditions.

You can further back Truex’s recent dominance by taking the over on his 43.5 laps led at PrizePicks. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match,

Christopher Bell ($10,200): Bell is a great play in all formats if people look at his raw long-run speed and don’t understand the circumstances behind it.

The short-flat expert has never finished outside the top six with Joe Gibbs Racing and looks poised to continue that trend thanks to his stellar practice that should go unnoticed by casual DFS players.

Chris Buescher ($7700): Speaking of FLAGS, Buescher was a top-three car in that metric in his group, which should put him well inside the top 10 overall when combining the groups.

By starting so far back in 26th, Buescher gives DFS players massive upside as well as a very strong floor. That’s because barring an incident, he’s almost surely going to move forward by quite a few places. And Richmond is a place that barely produces major incidents, at just a 6.9% rate since 2016.

Aric Almirola ($7300): See Chris Buescher. This is almost an identical analysis, except Almirola has an even better track-type and track-specific history.

Richmond DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

Kevin Harvick ($10,100): This is more of a gut call than anything, because Harvick’s usage and optimal percentages are nearly identical in my model.

That said, I can’t remember the last time Harvick:

  1. Started inside the top 10
  2. Had a badass practice session
  3. Had an amazing track history

Usually at least one of those factors is off and he still pulls off consistent top-five or top-10 performances. With all of these factors coming together, we should look at Harvick as a potential race winner.

Joey Logano ($9700): My model was high on Logano coming into the race weekend, so it’s not surprising that’s it’s still high on him despite his 23rd-place qualifying effort.

That’s in no small part because Logano was actually 11th best in my FLAGS metric.

Logano was sixth in his practice group in practice FLAGS, but he likely was also in the tougher group, making him a top-10 contender. He’s also finished inside the top 10 in 10 of the last 13 races at Richmond under low downforce conditions, so we know the track suits him well.

Chase Briscoe ($7100): By all metrics, Briscoe has had an abysmal year, which includes finishes of 20th or worse in seven of his last eight races.

However, the one race that was better than 20th, he finished in 10th at the most recent short-flat track, New Hampshire.

Briscoe came in a solid 14th in practice FLAGS and projects to be under-rostered by my model.

Source link

Most Popular


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

More from Author

Read Now

Fever select Caitlin Clark with No. 1 pick in WNBA Draft

BROOKLYN, N.Y. — Eight days after completing one of the greatest collegiate basketball careers ever recorded, Caitlin Clark was selected with the No. 1 pick in Monday’s WNBA Draft by the Indiana Fever.Clark is poised to not only help the Fever return to the postseason for...

In 1998, Bollywood star killed two blackbucks. A gang still seeks revenge.

Khan has been in the crosshairs of an armed gang since 1998 for shooting two blackbucks on a recreational hunting trip.Two members of a notorious criminal gang have been arrested for firing at the home of Bollywood actor Salman Khan in apparent retaliation for the superstar’s...

14 More Games Land on PS Plus Extra, Premium Today

As always, we ran a Poll over the weekend to gather your thoughts on the line-up, and (almost) as always, one-third of you responded by saying "it's a crap selection". 26 per cent of voters were at least somewhat happy with the selection, with Dave the...

Where Biden’s billions in chipmaking money have gone — and what could be next

The White House announcement this week of up to $6.4 billion in chipmaking cash for Samsung (005930.KS) marks a move to the next phase of the Biden administration's effort to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the US.The focus so far has largely been on leading-edge logic...

WNBA expansion headed for 16 teams. Portland, Toronto and Philly are options

NEW YORK — The WNBA is looking to continue growing in the next few years. The league intends to reach 16 teams by 2028, commissioner Cathy Engelbert said before the draft, confirming The Athletic report from earlier Monday.The league announced earlier this year that the Bay...

Microsoft Makes High-Stakes Play in Tech Cold War With Emirati A.I. Deal

Microsoft on Tuesday said it would make a $1.5 billion investment in G42, an artificial intelligence giant in the United Arab Emirates, in a deal largely orchestrated by the Biden administration to box out China as Washington and Beijing battle over who will exercise technological influence...

A hockey puck hurtled toward her son’s head. A fan jumped to block it.

Just over a minute was left on the clock during a hockey game in Cleveland Thursday when a player struck the puck, sending it barreling into the stands and toward Asia Davis’s 4-year-old son. That’s when another fan jumped and extended his right arm to block...

Thailand’s Finance Ministry to lead 17 agencies in considering House report on legalizing casinos

Thailand’s Ministry of Finance has been appointed lead agency to consider a House committee study recommending the legalization of casino gaming but will work with 16 other agencies in doing so, local media reports. According to English-language outlet The Nation, the appointment was ordered by way of...

WWE RAW Results Coverage, Reactions and Highlights for April 15, 2024

It’s Monday night, and you know what that means! WWE RAW will go down tonight, and Ringside News has got you covered with live play-by-play results coverage for the April 15, 2024 episode. The start time for WWE RAW is 8:00 PM EST. Match-by-match highlights...

Coachella Weekend 1 Recap, J Balvin’s Out Of This World Coachella Set, Metro Boomin & Future Top Hot 100 | Billboard News

It’s Monday April 15th, Billboard counts down the top 10 on the Hot 100, we’re running down all the headliners and special guest performers and some notable audience members that went down at the first weekend of Coachella, J Balvin gives us a behind the scene...