Team USA struggled to get from the group stage to the knockout stage, and Women’s World Cup odds now reflect that struggle.
Prior to the tournament, the U.S. Women’s National Team was pegged by any and all sportsbooks to win the title, in the range of a +250 favorite. Now, England is the +275 favorite to claim the Women’s World Cup title, and the U.S. has slipped to the +450 co-second choice along with Spain. And a challenging match against Sweden awaits in the round of 16.
WynnBet trader Dominick DeBonis helps dive into Women’s World Cup betting on this Sunday morning showdown. Coverage begins at 4 a.m. ET, with kickoff at 5 a.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
Let’s dive into the action!
Surprising twist
The odds for Team USA’s round of 16 game are closer than for any of the Americans’ group-stage matches. And they’re getting closer. WynnBet opened the three-way moneyline at U.S. +108/Sweden +260/Draw +240. The initial move was to U.S. +115/Sweden +267/Draw +220, so the Swedes’ price was actually slightly longer.
However, just a few hours before match time, Sweden has shortened to +245, with the U.S. at +125 and Draw at +215.
“In a surprising twist from where I’m sitting, the three-way market has a very even ticket count between the two sides,” DeBonis said. “The doom-and-gloom angle for the U.S. appears to be taking hold, as we currently win to both the U.S. and the Draw.”
That’s an unusual spot to be in for WynnBet, actually having more liability on underdog Sweden than on the U.S. less than 24 hours before match time.
“I would expect more U.S. money to come in the day of, but if the current rate holds up until kickoff, we’ll need the U.S. in most markets,” DeBonis said.
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Keep in mind that three-way betting is on the result after 90 minutes plus injury time. In the knockout stage, overtime is played if the two teams are tied after regulation/injury time. If the match is still tied after overtime, the match goes to penalty kicks.
But there’s also two-way betting available — wagering on which team will advance, regardless of when the outcome is settled. In WynnBet’s two-way market, the odds opened at U.S. -196/Sweden +151. A few hours ahead of the match, there’s been a notable shift toward the underdog, with the odds now at U.S. -175/Sweden +136.
So if you’d prefer to just bet on which team you think will reach the quarterfinals, point your money toward the two-way market.
Oddsmakers are also expecting a tightly played match. WynnBet has total goals set at two, with the over a modest -124 favorite and the Under -103.
“There’s not much action on the total as of now. The Over is getting the majority of the bets,” DeBonis said.
More money?
The USA’s second Group E match against the Netherlands remains the most-bet match of the entire tournament thus far. As it stands early Saturday, that might remain the case even after the USA-Sweden elimination match.
“The handle so far hasn’t matched U.S.-Netherlands at this point prior to kickoff,” DeBonis said.
And while some might attribute that to the not-so-timely time slot for U.S. fans — very early morning on the East Coast and ostensibly middle of the night on the West Coast — DeBonis feels it’s more due to a lack of trust in Team USA from American sports bettors.
“I think the time slot is slightly more favorable than the Portugal game (3 a.m. ET Tuesday) by virtue of taking place on the weekend,” DeBonis said. “I think the end of the perceived angle of complete U.S. dominance has contributed to the drop-off more so than the time slot.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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